Saturday, July 15, 2006
Why the Middle East situation has changed
Here's an example of how I think perceptions have changed:
In my opinion: World War III was the Cold War. World War IV began while WWIII was still in progress. Although it's difficult to say exactly when, a reasonable answer would be when Iran kidnapped 52 US diplomats and held them hostage for over a year. Several attacks against the US occured over time but it wasn't until 2001 when attacked on US soil that the US finally recognized that someone was at war with them.
Again, in my opinion: I expect WW IV to last even longer than WW III, it will probably involve nuclear weapons, and after it's all over there will be an enormous global middle class of several billion people and the global economy will actually accelerate. The history of the world is one of constantly increasing productive activity on a wide scale punctuated by various destructive wars and regional dark ages (such as the current Middle Eastern dark age).
The way I see it, I want some side to win. Any side. Whatever the ouctome is, I want someone soundly defeated, to the degree that what's happening now can not happen again. I want the rules of the game changed. Either Israel wins and Hezbollah is destoryed, or Israel loses and Hezbollah wins. I don't want some peace negotiations and pussy footing and bullshit where nothing gets resolved and the mentalities stay the same. Basically, either the arabs win this or they should just shut the fuck up forever. If this doesn;t happen, if some side doesn't rule supreme, this will just go on for years and years to come. And honestly, I am fuckin bored with it. I know the lebanese are bored with it and the Israelis are bored with it. The only people that are not bored with it are the freakin Shia of Lebanon and the Hamastanis, but then again, they live for this shit. What else do they have to live for really?In reality, there are a large number of people in the Middle East whose livelihoods depend on a perpetual low-level war. But things have changed. Hizb'allah now has bigger weapons, missles that go farther, and this is only going to continue to get worse if left alone. Jumping to the south, imagine if Gaza was a prosperous resort community with some light manufacturing industry, some boutique agriculture, and no rabid hatred of Israel. These people have a big chunk of oceanfront land with some of the best weather in the world. The Israelis walked away and what do they do? Fire missles over the wall at them. Hizb'allah, Hamas, they're all the same: they all feed off of death. They're like professional sports teams whose game is killing. Imagine if the primitive screwheads that feed off of war in Lebanon, Syria, and the area in general actually had something productive to do. Based on my reading of Middle Eastern bloggers and people from outside visiting there, it seems like an increasing number of people are tired of all the self-defeating crap going on. It's the worst sort of tragedy of the commons: with a small number of professional terrorists making a living by making the whole place one big shithole.
War and Peace
In my opinion: World War III was the Cold War. World War IV began while WWIII was still in progress. Although it's difficult to say exactly when, a reasonable answer would be when Iran kidnapped 52 US diplomats and held them hostage for over a year. Several attacks against the US occured over time but it wasn't until 2001 when attacked on US soil that the US finally recognized that someone was at war with them.
Again, in my opinion: I expect WW IV to last even longer than WW III, it will probably involve nuclear weapons, and after it's all over there will be an enormous global middle class of several billion people and the global economy will actually accelerate. The history of the world is one of constantly increasing productive activity on a wide scale punctuated by various destructive wars and regional dark ages (such as the current Middle Eastern dark age).
// posted by Bruce @ 4:27 AM 
